As new information keeps emerging and drafts continue before September, our algorithm reorders the rankings and who to draft in what round.
A position that keeps changing as when you get to approximately RB15, we have Aaron Jones followed by David Montgomery.
Most rankings put Aaron Jones well ahead of David Montgomery and, most orders are very low on Montgomery himself in comparison.
The data suggests otherwise, so perhaps there’s concern around Tarik Cohen coming back and the Bears adding to the RB position, particularly in the passing game.
However, we think Montgomery may be one of this year’s sleepers in the position of RB.
Whether Justin Fields is the starter or Andy Dalton with the limited options at wide receiver, either QB will be relying heavily on the RB’s.
We’re assuming that the other RB’s don’t dig into Montgomery’s workload as much as others think.
As such, we can’t see any other scenario than David Montgomery being at least close to a workhorse RB.
Whether or not to believe and his talent is almost irrelevant, but it’s worth noting he did have the maximum number of tackle busts in the season.
David Montgomery vs Aaron Jones ADP value
David Montgomery (ADP 45) is relatively cheap in most drafts vs Aaron Jones (ADP 18).
For those going into drafts with a zero RB strategy, I would potentially be looking to get Montgomery as my number one RB.
Aaron Jones has one that could prove our rankings wrong this year as he has been a top 5 RB the past two seasons and could well make it there again.
There are no longer concerns around Aaron Rodgers being his QB this year. However, Rodgers will likely regress from being the number one QB in fantasy this year which will affect Jones.
Also, our algorithm looks into player a production per game; this is where Aaron Jones falls if you go into his stats over the past few years.
You’ll notice a few big games and other games of moderately good production, as well as some terrible PPR games.
Not having consistent production but producing a few monster games is the danger of players like this.
At the end of the season, stats can be misleading as 59 points one week is excellent (unless, of course, you are playing the manager who has Tyler Lockett, who goes off that week also).
However, looking into Aaron Jones season, he only had 5 PPR games above 20 points, in comparison to the below:
- Aaron Jones had the same amount of 20 point plus games as James Robinson, Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor.
- Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook had ten games above 20 PPR points.
- Derrick Henry had 8 (plus two with 19 PPR points), and David Montgomery had eight games above 20 PPR points.
Montgomery vs Jones Verdict
In conclusion, we believe Aaron Jones and David Montgomery are not as far apart as most rankings suggest and why we have them back to back.
There’s a good chance David Montgomery ends the season close to our rankings at around RB15, and Aaron Jones finishes in the top 5.
However, our data suggest that Montgomery will have more 20 point PPR games than Aaron Jones, who will likely boost himself up with a few monster outings.
Even if by the end of the season, Aaron Jones does finish in as a top 5 RB, we are betting that a top 5 finish will be down to a few big games rather than consistent weekly production.
We prefer players with lower ceilings that can give you good production value most weeks; this is what David Montgomery is at his current ADP.
If in your draft Aaron Jones falls beyond his current ADP of 18 he may be good value. However, David Montgomery’s current ADP is 45, which we project as excellent RB value.